The entire region of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has not fully recovered from previous decades of war and destruction and devastating consequences are persisting even till to date particularly the aftermath of Arab Spring in Libya and Syria and Yemen and the sudden emergence of US and Zionist Regime (Israeli) made ISIS terrorist organization bought more wrath upon the innocent people of almost all countries but most devastating human losses and infrastructural damage can be seen in Syria and Iraq and Yemen.
There is no doubt that these Wars were fought for the control of Rich Oil and Mineral resources of the Middle Eastern countries and to over-through Regimes and Governments whether legitimate and Illegitimate which ruled their particular countries and had a strong Anti-Zionist Regime (Israeli) policy.
This sudden new escalatory tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan/Turkey is without a doubt involves Natural Gas and Zionist Regime and it also involves almost all major powers of the region as well of the world. Israel has been targeting Iranian Assets in Syria who are fighting against Terrorist on the behest that “It will not Tolerate Iranian Entrenchment at its Borders”, Azerbaijan which is immediate neighbour in the North-west of Iran has very strong and determined both Diplomatic and Military relations with Zionist Regime and even hosts several Zionist Intelligence bases in its territory. The last year Nagorno-Karabakh war was completely won by Azerbaijan with immense help and support from Israel and Turkey in the form of Military Co-operation and supply of high-tech and Modern weapons to Azerbaijan. The Azeri Army easily crushed the Armenians in its recent war and liberated its lands occupied by Armenia 30 years ago. Iran considers this as a threat to its National Security as about 20% of its Population is Azeri and Turkish and with the help of Turkish and Azeri Government Israel can create some-sort of Civil Unrest inside Iran and expecting the results would be similar to that of Syria
Now the current Tensions started with Azerbaijan detained two Iranian Truck drivers and closing the North-South Corridor a vital land highway between Iran and Russia. Daily supply of Goods and other stuff is transported from this Highway and it is of very strategic importance for both Iran and Russia. Iran reacted very quickly and swiftly by deploying more than 3 Divisions about 50,000 Troops on immediate border with Azerbaijan, those troops including Grounds Regular Infantry Units from IRGC, Heavy Artillery and Howitzers, Hundreds of Tanks and IFVs, Air-Defence Systems mainly of Short and Medium Range to counter extensive Drone Threats posed by Drones and several Radars and Observation Command and Control Centres, also including some squadrons of Air-Force and Drone Force. Right during the Deployment Iranian Officials started threating Azerbaijan with heavy strikes particularly IRGC commanders.
IRGC General Pakpur quoting “We will not tolerate the presence of Zionist Regime at our Borders” and IRGC Brigadier General Mohammed Bagheri quoting “In case of further escalations of Tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan, we will attack Azerbaijan with 4000 Missiles per day, which will completely destroy Baku”
Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence announced it is pulling its troops from immediate border with Iran and Turkey started deploying its own Troops on Border with Iran further adding fuel to the fires. Both Turkey and Azerbaijan announced they will closely monitor the troop movement on the Iranian side of Border.
On September 30th, Iranian Ministry of Defence announced that the deployment of Troops on North-western borders is for conducting Military drills codenamed “Conquerors of Khybar”, It is worth noting that Iran has not done any Military Drills on its North-west border from past 30 years and now it’s a huge Show of Force and to prove to Zionist Regime it is prepared for hostilities to engage.
Now the main root cause of this Problem lies with Turkey, EU and USA. Turkey being a developing nations needs desperate Gas and its ventures in the Mediterranean Sea in search of Gas Reserves dramatically failed despite going in for a fight with Greece and France by Violating the EEZ of Republic of Cyprus in the South. Europe on the other hand is becoming more and more dependent on Russian Supplied Gas particularly Germany and Baltic states. The Nord Stream 2 project worth about 2 Trillion Dollars for establishing Pipeline from Russia to Germany for the supply of Gas came under heavy sanctions from the US and had very drastic economic and diplomatic effects on German Relations with US. Germany considers this as a very serious issue but it has no other alternative as Europe does not have Gas or Oil Production Facilities. So it all brings us back to Azerbaijan which has huge amounts of Gas Reserves in Caspian Sea of Baku’s coast and well as facilities to extract and supply the Gas to anyone who requires it. But the Problem is there is no immediate Land Border between Azerbaijan and Turkey in order them to lay a pipeline and supply Gas to Turkey as well as to European Clients. The only immediate border of Turkey with Azerbaijan is Nakhchivan Autonomous Region and Armenia is in between preventing their plans.
After their Recent Victory against Armenia in Nagarno-Karabakh War in 2020 both Turkey and Azerbaijan are confident and planning to attack Armenia and link the Land Border between them in order to facilitate the supply of Gas to Europe in which Azerbaijan obviously have huge profits and Turkey will also have a upper hand for leverage on several sensitive issues with its EU and NATO allies.
Russia and Iran particularly determined to prevent this plan to come into existence as it will have face reaching Economic losses for both Russia and Iran as they both are themselves large producers and suppliers of Natural Gas on the Global Market and it also has the chances of permanently closing down the North-South land highway Corridor between Iran and Russia which is of Strategic importance to both of them.
The Normalization of Relations (Abrahamic Accords) between Zionist Regime (Israel) and Arab Kingdoms particularly UAE and Bahrain possibly Saudi Arabia too soon is also related to Oil and Iran. The Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz the strategic waterway through which more 30% of World’s Oil Supply passes is a Stronghold of Iranians. In case of any conflict between Arab Kingdoms and Iran in the near future, Iran possess capability to shut down the Strait and cripple Arab Economies and with Houthis in Yemen with Effective Control over Red Sea Bab al Mandad Strait these factors poses potential threats to Arab Economies and their future Survival. Abrahamic Accords was signed as a deal in order to construct a new Railway as well as New Oil Pipeline from UAE’s Abu Dhabi to Israeli Tel Aviv to facilitate the supply of Goods and Oil from Arab Kingdoms to their Clients in EU and US.
Potentially the Chances for the Start of New War between Iran and Azerbaijan/Turkey is very low and Diplomacy many play a vital role and Pressure of Russian Intervention. Turkey has already stretched its forces in Syria, Iraq and Libya and even sending Troops to Yemen, it is highly unlikely it is willing to start a New Front on its Eastern Borders, Azerbaijan no matter how much Turkish and Israeli Military support will cease to exist in face of hostilities with Iran. Iran is also not willing to start a War at these crucial times considering New Presidentship and Crippling Economy and JCPOA Nuclear Deal Negotiations with US, there are heavy chances US and Israel may use this War as a chance to target and Destroy Iranian Nuclear facilities the risk Iran not willing to take
Hopefully NO NEW WAR!